Do Rangers Have a Title Chance?

Do Rangers still have a chance at the league title? In a word, no. Mathematically of course, they are right in it. Even a glance at the table suggests Rangers fans can be hopeful. But fans know all too well not to fall for the superficial story of the league table. This crop of players do not have title credentials. That’s a fact.

Perhaps this is a little cynical. The rantings of a pessimistic fan, scarred by the fallow, enervating performances witnessed week in, week out for the past few seasons. Or perhaps, more likely, this is the rantings of a realistic fan, informed by the fallow, enervating performances witnessed week in, week out for the past few seasons. Having your optimism chipped away is a rite of passage at Rangers.

Simply watching the games this season is enough to almost categorically state that this team cannot win the league. Whilst the side are on good form of late, the performances have not exactly been the paragon of good football. The defence has been tightened up but the attack is blunter than a hammer. The top scorer in the league is 34-year-old Tavernier, with a pitiful four goals. That puts him in tied 14th for the league’s top scorers. It is a frankly abysmal statistic to highlight how goal shy Rangers have been.

Often, underlying numbers can be a place of solace when there’s no luck on the pitch. A crumb of comfort to explain away bad performances as bad luck. There can be no such crumbs this season. As per FotMob, Rangers expected goal difference this season is 11.9, just 0.9 higher than their actual GD. This means they haven’t been unlucky. They’ve just been as bad as it looks.

The biggest overperformers however, is the league leaders Hearts. Their xGD is 12.4 whereas their actual GD is 21. Maintaining an overperformance of that level is rarely sustainable. Unfortunately for Hearts, but fortunately for their rivals, there are cracks underneath the surface for the Edinburgh side. However, it feels likely that Celtic will exploit those cracks, not Rangers.

That likelihood feels almost inevitable when looking at their underlying numbers. Celtic are the league’s biggest underperformers. Their GD is 15 but their xGD is 26, over double Rangers and Hearts. If they continue to produce such numbers, a progression to the mean feels inescapable and if that happens, there will only be one winner come May.

Invariably, it is impossible to discuss Rangers season without mentioning public enemies No.1, 2, and 3 at Ibrox: Russel Martin, Kevin Thelwell, and Patrick Stewart. It is an important caveat as it was the unholy trinity’s poor leadership, poor signings, and poor tactics that led Rangers down a dead-end tunnel. Danny Rohl has made a valiant effort at reversing the club, but he is very much having to operate with one hand behind his back thanks to the squad’s dearth in talent.

Which is why the January transfer window will be crucial. To be clear, the squad essentially needs an entire overhaul. That cannot happen in one winter window but if the key areas are addressed and some round pegs are brought in to fill round holes, then the squad’s title credentials may start looking a little different. Of course, Celtic and Hearts are hardly likely to sit by twiddling their thumbs, so their transfer activity is every bit as consequential.

The upcoming Old Firm is a fork in the path moment of the season. Win it, and it’s hard to say Rangers are not in the title race. Lose it, and it’s hard to say they are. Personally, I find it hard to believe in a positive peripeteia; I’ve been burned too many times before. It’s the hope that kills so I’m killing off hope this season. But for those who dream we can still win the title, keep dreaming. The nightmare hasn’t become reality just yet.