Rangers vs Hearts | SPFL Matchday 18 | 25/26

Rangers head into Matchday 18 in 3rd place, behind Celtic and table topping Hearts. In any normal season, this would be widely seen as a catastrophe with us three behind our city rivals and nine (with a game in hand) behind Hearts.

In the topsy turvy tale of the 25/26 season, this is a remarkable recovery and a position most Rangers fans dared not think of just eight games ago. As the curtain fell on Russel Martin’s ill-fated reign, Rangers were 8th in the league table, closer to the relegation spot than the top. Martin secured a solitary win in the league and over his time secured a points per game average of 1.14.

Fast forward eight games and Rohl has completely changed the sides fortunes, going from the joke team of the league to the current form team. Six wins and two draws have seen Rohl’s side earn 2.5 points per game, and fans can now look forward to this weekend’s clash with Hearts.

Those who haven’t blocked all memory of Martin from their minds will remember the last meeting between us, where the game was ultimately decided by refereeing mistakes from Steven McLean. This time out we’ve got Nick Walsh in the middle and Grant Irvine on VAR duties. Hopefully this time out the game will be won by the best team on the day, rather than further officiating errors.

On the pitch it’s hard to predict exactly how Hearts will line up. Over the season, they’ve preferred a 4-4-2 setup but have switched it up in games vs Rangers and Celtic. They stuck with 4-4-2 in October vs Celtic but more recently at the start of December, they lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation and beat Celtic. They adopted the same setup in the first Rangers vs Hearts game, which they also won, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them adopt the same 4-2-3-1 setup on Sunday.

Now we have an adaptable coach, rather than a “philosophy zealot” it’s even harder to predict the Rangers starting lineup. After some initial teething problems, Rangers made good use of their 4-1-4-1 shape vs Hibs, and it allowed them to exert more control over the game than we had seen previously so it could well have been a trial before Sundays game.

When it comes to the Hearts dangermen, everyone knows the obvious name. Our fans have demanded to sign him long enough, that we are fully aware of what Laurence Shankland brings to the table. A goalmouth threat with eight goals and two assists this season, Shankland has missed just one game. It’s worth noting that the one game he did miss was also Hearts sole loss in the league this season.

It wouldn’t be fair to call Hearts a one-man team though, as level on goals scored with Shankland is Claudio Braga with eight goals and three assists. They also have Alexandros Kyziridis on the wing chipping in with three goals and four assists. All this means that although the Rangers defence will need to be aware of Shankland, they can’t afford to focus only on him with danger present across the Hearts front line.

Looking at the Rangers attacking line, it’s fair to say we aren’t exactly flush with threats. Youssef Chermiti came in for the Hibs game and failed to add to his solitary goal in Rangers colours. Chermiti took the place of injured Bojan Miovski, who had finally found some form with three goals from his last two games prior to the Hibs game.

Outside of the two main strikers our most serious threat is likely Mikey Moore who is now finding his feet after a ropey start to life at Rangers and should have had two in the Kilmarnock game. Djedi Gassama is the other notable goal threat but after a blazing start in blue, has struggled with decision making. The talent is undeniable, but more work is required on the training pitch to see consistency in performances.

Hearts have averaged two goals a game, slightly over performing the average 1.74 xG per game. From their 17 games in the league, they’ve only failed to score twice or more five times this season and have only failed to score at all, twice.

Hearts attacking prowess will mean a far sterner test of the Rangers backline than we’ve seen previously. We can expect to see Djiga and Fernandez at CB and possibly Nsiala if we go with a three. Both Djiga and Fernandez have shown flaky moments which Hearts will likely aim to capitalise on. Both will need to remain 100% focussed for this one.

At the other end the news doesn’t get much better. As good as Hearts have been in attack, they’ve also shown a strength in defence that we will need to break down. Conceding just under a goal a game on average or 13 over the season is comparable with both Rangers and Celtic who have both also conceded 13 goals in the season to date.

All the data suggests this will be a stern test for a resurgent Rangers side but if we are to have any serious ambitions of a title challenge, it’s one we will have to face head on and ultimately come out of it, victorious. Hearts are (on the data so far) the leagues best attacking side, however a poor Russell Martin team should have beaten them, bar some dodgy decisions. It wont be easy but we shouldn’t fear this game, it’s definitely winnable!

Prediction – 3:1 Rangers Win