The SPFL - The Fixture List and What Next

As Scottish football heads towards the final game before the SPFL splits into two groups, we have been given the fixture list for those final five games which will ultimately determine where the title ends up. It seems like a good time to take stock of where we are.

In an unusual twist, this season isn’t just about which side of Glasgow the trophy ends up on. For once we have a three-way race to the end and this bizarre season could end up with the trophy heading to Edinburgh. This would be the first time the trophy hasn’t gone to Glasgow since the 84/85 season and the first time it’s been to Edinburgh since the 59/60 season, so you can see why non-Old Firm fans are watching with interest.

What’s even more interesting in this story is that each side competing for top spot has reason to be surprised they are even in a title race. Hearts are the obvious ones, they spend a pittance compared to the Glasgow sides and as Ewen Cameron keeps reminding everyone who will listen over on X, they have been pegged to drop out since October, despite the obvious impact of Tony Bloom’s Jamestown Analytics on their squad!

We’ve seen teams start strong before and be there abouts, but they invariably drop off as the season goes on, injuries start to bite and the fixture congestion kicks in. Derek McInnes’s Hearts have ploughed through all this, including a long-term injury to talisman striker, Lawrence Shankland, to maintain their lead, albeit reduced to one point now.

Rangers started the league in the worst possible way with manager Russell Martin now consigned to the record books as Rangers shortest serving permanent manager and our worst manager ever statistically. When Danny Rohl came in, he had to drag us from 8th, with a massive points deficit, back into contention at the top.

Celtic, perhaps fearing being outdone by us in the hilarity stakes, have cycled through four managerial appointments, including bringing Martin O’Neil back twice. They appointed their own worst manager in Wilfried Nancy who gave us that Venn diagram detailing what we should worry about. Celtic did indeed focus on what they could control, binning the hapless Frenchman after just eight games.

All three teams have a reason to call their own place at the top a shock but the side benefit for neutrals is the most competitive topflight season in living memory and that can only be a good thing. In theory it should increase gates, make the league more marketable for an internation audience and generally improve the perception of our league but the SPFL / SFA seem determined for that not to be the case.

The season has been somewhat overshadowed by the refereeing in this country. Just from my own Rangers perspective, I can point to a high number of incidents where the decision making from the referees is at best poor and at worst suspect. Just recently, Mikey Moore was bowled over in the process of taking a shot at the edge of the box and it was deemed, not to be denial of obvious goal scoring opportunity (DOGSO), whilst we saw this weekend DOGSO awarded against a Hearts player in their own half. Raskin was wiped out whilst trying to get away an overhead kick in the box and of course the Gogic handball, where it was the only one not shown on Willie Collums VAR show but clearly had much more of an impact than the Simon Murray version that same weekend.

I am not naïve enough to think the Hearts and Celtic fans won’t have their own versions of these events, which in their mind prove the refs are all Rangers leaning. The simple fact is, we can debate bias or incompetence as much as we want but the one thing that is completely factual and I am sure all fans agree on, is that the consistency isn’t there.

You might not like the decisions I mentioned but if they were given the same way each time, you could almost accept it. The problem for Rangers fans, and I suspect other fans, is that we see our team penalised, whilst others get away with the same things. That is not acceptable, especially in such a tightly contested season, where one of these decisions could determine the ultimate winner and thus a Champions League qualification place. If teams can get through the qualifiers, they are looking at £30m plus in revenue which is a game changer for any Scottish side, including the big two. With such riches on offer for the top two, it would be criminal to see it determined by the Scottish referees, yet that is exactly where we are heading and you can guarantee that the looser of the three is going to make their feelings known loudly and widely.

Perhaps wanting to get in on the joint hilarity of the Rangers and Celtic seasons, the SPFL have now released their fixture list for the final five games and in true SPFL fashion, have managed to make things worse. From looking through social media posting, it appears both Ranger and Hearts fans have taken exception, not without some justification I might add. The only ones who really seem happy are the Celtic fans, especially when their club allied the release of the fixture list with the return of their Ultra group, the Green Brigade.

So, what are the latest complaints and do they have grounds? In my mind yes and again, potentially could have been avoided. The biggest concern for both sides seems to be Hearts final game, away at Celtic Park. Hearts fans are furious that they are playing away, given that except once (when the league was already statistically done) the team at the top going into the split is given a home game last, so if they do end up as winners, they can celebrate with their fans.

Meanwhile, Rangers fans are also furious as they envisage scenarios where Celtic are out of the race by that game and the result determines if Hearts or Rangers win the league. Celtic fans may not like the Hearts, but its small change compared to their hatred of Rangers. What prevents Celtic allowing the Hearts win to prevent the trophy going to Ibrox as many believe they did a few years back to allow Aberdeen to finish above Rangers?

The obvious answer to this would have been to play the Rangers vs Celtic, Rangers vs Hearts and Celtic vs Hearts in the first couple of games, then it could have been a straight shootout in the other games. This would have allowed them to give Hearts a home game last, still ensure Celtic got the extra home game they are due and removes any claims of laying down being levelled.

All that said, it’s done now and we know how the run to the end of the season looks. For me it’s a simple situation here, if somewhat cliché. If we win all our games, we win the league. I also, firmly, believe we shouldn’t spend too much energy at this stage panicking about the last league game. We need to beat Falkirk away first and if we don’t do that, the last game of the season losses relevance. As the ex-Celtic manager said with his Venn, worry about what we can control and the rest will fall as it will!

The other big question that should be on the SPFLs mind, but likely isn’t as they don’t seem to have a strategic bone in their bodies, is how we prevent this happening again. Many assume Hearts will be another Leicester with one amazing season, but what if they aren’t? What if this the start of a more competitive SPFL where teams can damage each other, including the big two?Well short term, we could address the elephant in the room. With those five games of the split determining a massive potential payday for two clubs, lets remove the appearance of bias or incompetence. It’s the internet age and VAR footage is beamed from the ground to a central location anyway. Instead of the same old Scottish refs backing up Scottish refs, why not get foreign refs manning the VAR system. This instantly kills allegations of bias as they have no skin in the game, they would just be there to do a job, rather than having grown up as either fans of one or the big two or having a “leaning” towards one.

We keep the Scottish refs on the pitch, showing you still support your referees in this country, but you remove some of the burden on them by giving impartial backups on VAR. It instantly stems some of the wilder conspiracy theories from the fans and most importantly, begins to restore some credibility to the Scottish game, following a season where that has been badly damaged by some of the incredible officiating we’ve seen.

Longer term, I would continue the proposed short-term solution for starters. Over the years I have seen both Celtic and Rangers fans have with cause to believe the refs favour the other side, meanwhile the rest of the SPFL teams believe the refs favour both Old Firm sides, above their own. Again, doing this removes that perception and it could even be done as an exchange with Scottish refs manning VAR for a foreign league (if they even want that!)

I also think it’s time to discuss league structure… again! I’ve never been truly in favour of the current format, but it has just about worked, for as long as it was two teams competing. With us adding a third this season, I believe the fixture list shows the complexities of having three teams involved at the top and in the hope other teams can continue to challenge, now feels like the time to make a real change.

We do have to be realistic here, due to the demands of sponsors and Sky. A 20-team topflight playing each other once at home, once away may sound great to many but it simply wont fly in a format that is expected to produce four Old Firm games a year in the league.

The best solution I have heard for an amended topflight, which still effects enough change to stabilise the amount of fiddling required is a move to a 14-team topflight. I think we could bring this in next season without much fuss, if everyone can get onboard.

Firstly, to get the 14 teams, whilst still maintaining the sporting integrity would be relatively simple. As a one off, you don’t relegate the 11th placed team and they don’t compete in playoffs. You take the top two from the championship (almost certainly St Johnstone and Partick Thistle) and award them automatic promotion. You then have bottom placed Livi do a two-legged playoff with third in the Championship, with the winner taking the final SPFL place.

Next season all 14 teams, play each other home and away which would be a total of 26 games. We then split them into a top and bottom seven, where the teams face the other teams in their group home and away again. This provides another 12 games, taking the total to the same as present (38). Each team is guaranteed the same number of home and away games against each other, removing the current uneven system and crucially, it keeps the same number of Old Firm games so Sky are likely to be supportive.

There is obviously much more to do in Scottish football to get the league to where we all want it to be but these feel like two very simple options which instantly restore some credibility to our game. Will Neil Doncaster ever be brave enough to take these steps? Probably not to be honest but it’s still something we should aspire to!